It seems to me that Obama’s big speech tomorrow on religion and race can have one of four results.
1. It can be a home run, distancing himself from the radicalism of liberation theology and advocating that those who believe as the Trinitarians do move beyond their grievances and into the mainstream; this would propel the Obama candidacy forward significantly and help start an actual Change in the country that is much needed and somewhat overdue, and it will become known as the greatest political speech at least since Checkers, perhaps since Gettysburg.
2. He can give a speech that somewhat explicates him from this fiasco but not in a persuasive or long-lasting manner. His candidacy will survive, but never again thrive, because won’t have the air of invincibility and untouchability that he had before.
3. He can give a speech that doesn’t really explicate him from this fiasco, that is not persuasive and leaves him looking as much outside the mainstream as if he were in one of those videos shouting “AMEN!” to Wright’s “US of KKK A.” His candidacy will peter out and he’ll either lose among the superdelegates or crash in November.
4. Crash and burn. He’ll look foolish and his words will ring extremely hollow. His numbers will crash and he’ll lose the nomination because the super delegates will realize that he’s unelectable. The result will be catastrophic for the Democrats and the left generally.
I think 3 is most likely. This speech calls for genuine rhetoric, actually persuading others of something. For all his silver-tongued fame, I’m not sure he’s ever persuaded others of anything more significant than that he’s a swell guy. A feel good speech simply will not work.
Chances: 1 – 5%; 2 – 35%; 3 – 45%; 4 – 15%. Place your bets elsewhere, as I am not a gambling man.
Posted by Apollo in Audacity of Hype