In polling for the presidency, a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican the way Michael Phelps outswims a quadriplegic. Yet Obama is shockingly underperforming. As the prophet noted:
The winds at the Democrats’ backs are hurricane-force gales, and yet there’s Obama holding steady, like a young Dan Rather in his schoolgirl rain slicker, immobile and unmovable.
Quite a few of the explanations have focused on the voters, or the voters’ reactions to the candidates. Perhaps the problem is that Obama, on some level, doesn’t really want to be president, and is therefore self-sabotaging his candidacy.
This thought came to mind when browsing the reaction to Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as a running mate. Patrick Ruffini pulled up some of Biden’s greatest goofs, and McCain already has a puckish ad running about Obama-Biden (H/T)
Jay Nordlinger observed that Obama had a wealth of good options, the political equivalent of lobster or lamb chops, and instead went with a tofurkey. Much as we like to snark at him, Obama is intelligent. He has to know that Biden is a walking gaffe machine, the Democratic Dan Quayle. The first rule of a vice presidential pick is to do no harm to the ticket; like Quayle before him, Biden flunks. The argument that Biden is a choice that shows Obama is serious about governing doesn’t supersede this first rule, since one must win the election before selecting furniture in the oval office.
In the realm of pure speculation, let’s try to figure out his mindset if Obama, understanding that he wasn’t really ready for the presidency but wanting some practice, ran in 2008 thinking that he wouldn’t win the nomination. So his plan would be that 2008 was supposed to be a dress rehearsal for the real event in 2012. Winning the nomination would put him in the position of a dog who suddenly caught the Honda Civic. He hadn’t planned for this, and on some psychological level didn’t want to abandon his original plan of coming up short in 2008.
But an intelligent person, which Obama surely is, would try his best to adapt. He’s brought in a small army of consultants. For all his intelligence, Obama didn’t anticipate winning, and that’s scared him somewhat, made him trust his judgment less. It was one thing for him to luck into his Senate seat, where his primary and general election opponents self-destructed; it is quite another for him to luck into the White House. Expecting, quite reasonably, to lose, and then winning, would make anyone question his judgment and look for someone with a sounder grasp of affairs. Unfortunately for Obama, he’s surrounded by true believers, whose judgment is (almost by definition) lacking. My hunch is that Obama doesn’t have anybody in his inner circle who tells him the bad news, not because they’re afraid of his reaction, but because they’ve all drunk the Kool-aid.
So we have an intelligent but unsure man, isolated from dissenting opinions, who perhaps doesn’t want to do what everyone around him wants him to do. His advisers, convinced of his inevitability, probably wanted someone who could plausibly take charge of the presidency if, God forbid, something should happen to Obama. Meanwhile, Obama himself probably wanted someone intelligent and experienced, who has Washington insider knowledge and foreign policy background that he himself lacks, and who is independent of the true believers. Picking Biden—chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a senator for 36 of his 66 years on earth, a former sharp critic and rival for the presidency—fits the bill. It also satisfies Obama’s subconscious desire to lose.
I have no inside knowledge of the Obama campaign or Obama himself. I’m just speculating here. But I think I’m reasonably close to explaining what’s going on. Other Democratic politicians are Washington insiders and foreign affairs buffs and are executive branch material: former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Virginia Senator James Webb, Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd. But only Biden brings a counterproductive gaffe machine. The next 70 odd days are going to be interesting—if your idea of interesting is a root canal.
Posted by Hubbard in Audacity of Hype, Walking the Cat Backwards